Why is India being compared to the doomed Argentina?

 01 Sep 2019 ( News Bureau )
POSTER

When the Reserve Bank of India decided to give one lakh 76 thousand crore rupees to the Indian government, the opposition Congress warned that India should learn from Argentina.

Indeed, the Argentine government was forced to fund its Central Bank.

This is the year of 2010. The Argentine government excluded the then Chief of the Central Bank and used the bank's reserve funds to pay its debts.

Now the Government of India's taking of funds from the Reserve Bank is being compared to taking funds from its Central Bank of Argentina.

Argentina is the third largest economy in Latin America. But today Argentina's economy is in a very bad phase.

Analysts believe that the derailment of the Argentine economy had only begun when the central bank was forced to take money.

Former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Viral Acharya, in his speech in 2018, referred to the Argentine episode.

Even when Viral Acharya mentioned Argentina, there were speculations that the central government was putting pressure on the Reserve Bank of India.

In January 2010, Martin Redrado, head of the Central Bank of Argentina, resigned in a dramatic manner. A few days earlier, the government had also tried to remove him from the post.

Resigning, he had said, "My time in the Central Bank is over, so I have decided to leave this post forever. I am satisfied to finish my work."

He said, "We have reached this position because of the government's constant interference in institutions. Basically I am defending two principles - the central bank's independence in decision making and the use of the Reserve Fund only for financial and monetary stability."

The then government of President Cristina Fernández passed an order in December 2009 under which the government would have received $ 6.6 billion from the Central Bank. The government claimed that the Central Bank had an additional fund of $ 18 billion.

Rodrado refused to transfer these funds to the government. He had to repay the consequences of losing his post.

The Argentine government also tried to remove him from office in January 2010, accusing him of misconduct and neglect of duties, but the effort failed because it was unconstitutional.

After Redrado stepped down, the government made his deputy Miguel Angel Peske head. They did what the government wanted.

The independence of the Central Bank of Argentina was also under question after Redrado left office.

A judge in New York, Thomas Griesa, passed an order to freeze $ 1.7 billion of the Central Bank of Argentina held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, arguing that the Central Bank of Argentina is no longer an autonomous agency and  it is acting at the behest of the country's government.

Alberto Ramos, an Argentine analyst at Goldman Sachs Bank, said in February 2010, "It is not a positive step to meet government spending from the Central Bank's Reserve Fund. The concept of additional reserves can certainly be debated."

Quoting these, Viral Acharya had said that an independent central bank is necessary for a well-functioning economy. That is, a central bank that is free from government pressure.

Viral Acharya had said that there could be dangerous consequences for reducing the independence of the Central Bank. He had said that this could prove to be a self-goal as it could create a crisis of confidence in the capital markets that governments are using to meet their expenses.

He had said, "Governments that do not respect the independence of the Central Bank will have to face the wrath of the financial markets today or not tomorrow. The day they have to curse the freedom of this important regulatory body."

Reserve Bank of India governor Urjit Patel resigned from his post in December 2018. He had said that he is resigning due to personal reasons but it was believed that he was under pressure to follow the gestures of the government.

Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan had said in a comment, "The government should understand why Urjit Patel resigned."

Shaktikanta Das was made the Governor of RBI after Urjit Patel. Before assuming the post of RBI Governor, he was also the Secretary of Economic Affairs from 2015 to 2017.

IAS Shaktikanta Das agreed with the Narendra Modi government's decision on demonetisation.

According to senior journalist Pranjoy Guha Thakurta, "On the day Shaktikanta Das became the Governor of RBI, it was clear that RBI will have to do whatever the government wants."

Now Shaktikanta Das, on the recommendation of the Vimal Jalan Committee, has given the government the money that the government wanted to acquire.

The difference between the developments in India and Argentina is that the Argentine government passed the order and took money from the Central Bank, while the Reserve Bank of India gave the money to the government on the recommendation of the Vimal Jalan Committee.

While giving his resignation, Redrado had taken a dig at the government, but Urjit Patel went to the shore citing personal reasons. But after both, the chiefs who took office did what the government wanted.

The Argentine economy stagnated during the reign of President Nestor Kirchner from 2003 to 2007. In 2007, Argentina paid off the entire loan taken from the IMF.

But Kirchner was succeeded by his wife Christina Fernández. The economy again became unstable during the time of Christina Fernández. Christina passed the order and took the money of the country's central bank.

The Argentine people elected Mauricio Macri as the new president in October 2015 after Christina Fernández. He was expected to bring the economy of this South American country on a steady path.

He promised to end poverty completely by rebuilding the country's economy. But by 2018, the situation had become such that he had to ask for a loan from the International Monetary Fund.

Argentine currency kept falling day by day and inflation increased. Everyday living became expensive. In 2015, they received 10 pesos for one dollar, now they get 60 pesos for one dollar.

Despite all efforts, the Macri government has not been able to bring down inflation. The economic reforms promised to reduce expenditure and reduce debt could not be implemented.

Due to rising inflation and public spending cuts, the income did not increase compared to the prices, due to which most of the people were poor. According to official figures, one third of the country's population is now living in poverty.

Now Argentina is caught in an increasingly complex economic crisis, which does not seem to be the way out. Credit rating agencies have indicated the possibility of the country being bankrupt.

The Indian rupee is constantly falling against the dollar. The unemployment rate is the highest level in the past 45 years. The GDP rate has come down to only five percent in seven years. Signs of sluggishness in the economy are clearly visible.

Despite this, the Modi government is saying that everything is fine in the country. The economy is poised to touch a figure of five trillion dollars. It is a different matter that only the government colleagues are questioning these claims.

In a recent tweet, BJP MP Subramanian Swamy has said, "If new economic policy is not coming, be prepared to call 5 trillion as goodboy. Only bravery or knowledge alone cannot stop the economy from ruining. He needs both. Today we have neither of them.''

 

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