Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Difficult to Trust Exit Polls

 20 May 2019 ( IBTN News Bureau )
POSTER

In India, the path of withdrawal of NDA government is being shown in exit polls conducted by various survey companies and news channels, but in addition to the opposition parties, political analysts are also seeing this analysis beyond reality.

According to the experts, in the last few years, exit polls of Uttar Pradesh and other states and Lok Sabha elections have been too far away from reality, therefore, it is difficult to believe how accurate these times are.

Subhash Mishra, political editor of Times of India, in Lucknow, says that considering the trends seen on the ground, these numbers of seats are not realistic.

He says, "On the basis of the way in which there is ethnic and regional diversity in the way of voting and trends, it is very difficult to guess the seats accurately. Most exit polls are showing a one-sided result in favor of the BJP, which is not possible. As much as I have seen and understood on the ground in UP, I can say that the coalition will do well."

Although in some exits, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance has been shown quite a bit in Uttar Pradesh, but in most of them either its strong struggle with the BJP is being seen or BJP is being shown very much ahead.

Subhash Mishra says that the elections that were held in three states recently, most of the exit polls were not there too, so it is not okay to believe too much.

Not only this, most analysts also consider the reason behind the diversity of their own exit polls as a reason for their process and their consequences.

Senior journalist Amita Verma has so far covered several elections. She says, "The exit polls who used to come initially were very close to reality. The reason for this was that they were largely followed by those procedures which are adopted in Cefology. If their results are not coming right now, then one of the main reasons is that most of the exits are sponsored and in such a situation, there should not be any hope for the right results."

Amita Verma also believes that whatever she has seen during Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, it does not appear in these exit polls.

She says, "In view of the way in which the votes have been transferred between SP and BSP, the coalition has been very strong. Yes, it is also true that the way in which the BJP was being talked about of a big loss, it will not be so. But trusting on exit polls is a bit difficult."

Senior journalist Shravan Shukla, despite seeing the atmosphere in favor of BJP in UP, is unable to trust exit polls.

He says, "Take a look at the 2017 assembly elections. No one had said that BJP would win by such a large majority. Though there was a lot in favor of the BJP on the ground, but why pre-election survey did not see so many seats. The estimation of these surveys does not look much different than the individual estimates of the people. Actually, the process that is adopted in these surveys does not recognize the ground reality. Uttar Pradesh's voter is quite mature. He does not clarify his tendency in such a hurry. And in this election of time, this thing has been specifically seen."

In fact, there are many journalists covering the electoral process at the grassroots who have their own opinions on election results, but these people too are not able to put their trust in exit polls too.

Shravan Shukla says that how much difference is there in pre-election surveys, which is enough to say that it is not followed in any one of the usual process.

Shravan Shukla says that the results of Exit Polls can not be considered at all in the context of UP.

He says, "This whole game is just the TRP of the channels, nothing else besides. The way in which the absolute majority governments have been formed in the 2007, 2012 and again 2017 Assembly elections, it has dismissed all election surveys. Even in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In such a situation, I do not think much about the results of election surveys should be trusted."

However, on these social media, these surveys are being discussed fiercely and people are evaluating their own way. Together, this advice is also being given that there are two days left in the actual results.

 

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